The credit card giant has some exposure to a weakening economy. Read more…
|MONDAY, MAY 20|
|8:30 am||Chicago Fed national activity index||April||-0.45||—||0.05|
|8:50 am||Raphael Bostic interview|
|9:30 am||Patrick Harker speaks|
|1:05 pm||Richard Clarida speaks|
|7 pm||Jerome Powell speaks|
|TUESDAY, MAY 21|
|7:50am||Raphael Bostic speaks|
|10 am||Existing home sales||April||5.35mln||5.21 mln|
|10:45am||Charles Evans speaks|
|12:10pm||Eric Rosengren speaks|
|11 pm||James Bullard speaks|
|WEDNESDAY, MAY 22|
|10:10am||Raphael Bostic speaks|
|2 pm||FOMC minutes|
|THURSDAY, MAY 23|
|8:30 am||Weekly jobless claims||5/18||217,000||212,000|
|9:45 am||Markit manufacturing PMI (flash)||May||—||52.6|
|9:45 am||Markit services PMI (flash)||May||—||53.0|
|10 am||New home sales||April||670,000||692,000|
|1 pm||Rob Kaplan, Tom Barkin,
Mary Daly speak
|FRIDAY, MAY 24|
|8:30 am||Durable goods orders||April||-2.3%||2.6%|
|8:30 am||Core capital goods orders||April||-0.3%||1.4%|
|MONDAY, MAY 13|
|11 am||Survey of consumer expectations||April|
|TUESDAY, MAY 14|
|6 am||NFIB small-business index||April||—||101.8|
|8:30 am||Import price index||April||—||0.6%|
|WEDNESDAY, MAY 15|
|8:30 am||Retail sales||April||0.2%||1.6%|
|8:30 am||Retail sales ex-autos||April||0.7%||1.2%|
|8:30 am||Empire state index||May||—||10.1|
|9:15 am||Industrial production||April||-0.1%||-0.1%|
|9.15 am||Capacity utilization||April||78.6%||78.8%|
|10 am||Business inventories||March||—||0.3%|
|10 am||NAHB home builders’ index||May||—||63|
|THURSDAY, MAY 16|
|8:30 am||Weekly jobless claims||5/11||215,000||228,000|
|8:30 am||Housing starts||April||1.205mln||1.139mln|
|8:30 am||Building permits||April||1.296mln||1.288mln|
|8:30 am||Philly Fed manufacturing index||May||10.1||8.5|
|FRIDAY, MAY 17|
|10 am||Consumer sentiment index||May||97.0||97.2|
OECD (2019), Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class, OECD Publishing, Paris,https://doi.org/10.1787/689afed1-en.
No, it hasn’t:
Tax Policy Center argues federal revenue declined.
Other skeptics cite surging government deficits and debt.
The brief economic spurt in 2018 was evidence of the law’s failure to help long-term growth.
Yes, it has:
None of the above arguments concludes whether the tax cut was worth its cost.
Comparing expected growth in gross domestic product with growth in publicly held federal debt — before and after the tax cut — is a better measure, according to Edward Conard, an American Enterprise Institute visiting scholar and former Bain Capital partner, writing in The Wall Street Journal. His comparison includes the long-term effect of tax reform on the economy and the federal budget.
The Congressional Budget Office last week published a 10-year forecast.
Unlike a pre-reform projection, the CBO now expects annual GDP that’s $750 billion higher by 2027, the last year of its prior forecast.
“A strong case can be made that tax reform played a predominant role in accelerating GDP growth. While most large economies stagnated last year, a sharp rise in business investment in the U.S. helped drive the economy forward,” Conard writes. “On the other side of the ledger, the CBO predicts the tax cuts will add $1.9 trillion of additional debt in the coming decade, and that the government will pay about $60 billion more in interest each year as a result. So the bottom line says an extra $60 billion a year buys the U.S. $750 billion in annual GDP. That’s a great deal for taxpayers.”
The government may collect more than $120 billion a year in taxes from that extra $750 billion of GDP, more than enough to cover additional interest payments.