Debating whether 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act paid for itself

Rob Williams

No, it hasn’t:

Tax Policy Center argues federal revenue declined.

Other skeptics cite surging government deficits and debt.

The brief economic spurt in 2018 was evidence of the law’s failure to help long-term growth.

Yes, it has:

None of the above arguments concludes whether the tax cut was worth its cost.

Comparing expected growth in gross domestic product with growth in publicly held federal debt — before and after the tax cut — is a better measure, according to Edward Conard, an American Enterprise Institute visiting scholar and former Bain Capital partner, writing in The Wall Street Journal. His comparison includes the long-term effect of tax reform on the economy and the federal budget.

The Congressional Budget Office last week published a 10-year forecast.

Unlike a pre-reform projection, the CBO now expects annual GDP that’s $750 billion higher by 2027, the last year of its prior forecast.

“A strong case can be made that tax reform played a predominant role in accelerating GDP growth. While most large economies stagnated last year, a sharp rise in business investment in the U.S. helped drive the economy forward,” Conard writes. “On the other side of the ledger, the CBO predicts the tax cuts will add $1.9 trillion of additional debt in the coming decade, and that the government will pay about $60 billion more in interest each year as a result. So the bottom line says an extra $60 billion a year buys the U.S. $750 billion in annual GDP. That’s a great deal for taxpayers.”

The government may collect more than $120 billion a year in taxes from that extra $750 billion of GDP, more than enough to cover additional interest payments.

Tax reform increases real, inflation-adjusted GDP by $300 billion to $450 billion a year in the coming decade compared with the CBO’s 2017 projection.
The higher GDP is much bigger than the debt the government borrowed to pay for the tax cuts (assuming a real growth rate of 1.8 percent and a real long-term U.S. government interest rate of about 1.2 percent).

‘NYT,’ ‘WaPo,’ Conde Nast Face Possible Libel Suits From Covington Student

Rob Williams

Lawyers representing Covington Catholic High School student Nick Sandmann and his family last week took the first step in filing possible libel suits against more than 50 news organizations, journalists, celebrities and religious organizations. Read more…

Document retention letters sent to:

  • The Washington Post
  • The New York Times
  • Cable News Network, Inc. (CNN)
  • The Guardian
  • National Public Radio
  • TMZ
  • Atlantic Media Inc.
  • Capitol Hill Publishing Corp.
  • Diocese of Covington
  • Diocese of Lexington
  • Archdiocese of Louisville
  • Diocese of Baltimore
  • Ana Cabrera
  • Sara Sidner
  • Erin Burnett
  • S.E. Cupp
  • Elliot C. McLaughlin
  • Amanda Watts
  • Emanuella Grinberg
  • Michelle Boorstein
  • Cleve R. Wootson Jr.
  • Antonio Olivo
  • Joe Heim
  • Michael E. Miller
  • Eli Rosenberg
  • Isaac Stanley-Becker
  • Kristine Phillips
  • Sarah Mervosh
  • Emily S. Rueb
  • Maggie Haberman
  • David Brooks
  • Shannon Doyne
  • Kurt Eichenwald
  • Andrea Mitchell
  • Savannah Guthrie
  • Joy Reid
  • Chuck Todd
  • Noah Berlatsky
  • Elisha Fieldstadt
  • Eun Kyung Kim
  • HBO
  • Bill Maher
  • Warner Media
  • Conde Nast
  • GQ
  • Heavy.com
  • The Hill
  • The Atlantic
  • Bustle.com
  • Ilhan Omar
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Kathy Griffin
  • Alyssa Milano
  • Jim Carrey

Top 10 Brands for Super Bowl Buzz

Rob Williams
Brands Earned Media Value Number of Likes 
NFL $3,117,468         11,083,875
Pepsi $104,888               218,627
Doritos $102,120               439,887
Marvel $69,686               201,787
Mercedes-Benz $64,532               192,850
Olay $59,209               287,937
Bud Light $35,466                 84,064
Budweiser $23,742                 50,648
Amazon $19,771                 60,196
Michelob Ultra $19,130                 52,311
Grand Total $3,616,012         12,672,182

Source: InfluencerDB

InfluencerDB analyzed all posts from channels with more than 15,000 followers from Jan. 28 to Feb. 4, 2019, that mentioned a brand or used a brand hashtag — in addition to using at least one of the hashtags associated with the Super Bowl. Earned Media Value (EMV) is the value of the exposure of the posts mentioning an Instagram channel if that channel bought the same amount of advertising exposure.

Stories about Apple’s strategy

Rob Williams

Apple’s Next Move: Be More Like Microsoft

“Samsung announced Monday that Apple’s iTunes software—and the video library it lets people make purchases from—will be available on its smart TVs. In addition, these TVs will support AirPlay 2, Apple’s wireless standard that allows Apple’s iPhones and other devices to stream content directly to those TVs. That was followed by a flurry of AirPlay 2 announcements from other TV makers including LG, Vizio and Sony. In December, Amazon announced that Apple Music was coming to Echo speakers.” – Christopher Mims, The Wall Street Journal

Apple’s Tim Cook maintains optimism despite iPhone sales slide

“A total of more than 900 million iPhones were in active use at the end of 2018, Apple revealed on Tuesday, up 75 million or 9 percent over the past year. Ben Bajarin, analyst at Creative Strategies, said that the statistic — which Apple has never disclosed before — was ‘much bigger than most people thought.’” – Tim Bradsaw, The Financial Times

Apple Is Planning 3-D Cameras for New iPhones in AR Push

“Apple plans to launch iPhones with a more-powerful 3-D camera as soon as next year, stepping up the company’s push into augmented reality, according to people familiar with the plans. The rear-facing, longer-range 3-D camera is designed to scan the environment to create three-dimensional reconstructions of the real world.” – Mark Gurman and Debby Wu, Bloomberg News

Apple Plans Bigger Video Presence As ‘The Bundle Breaks Down’

Apple CEO Tim Cook “outlined a handful of ways in which Apple plans to play in that space, including the Apple TV device, selling third-party video subscriptions, and original content.” – Alex Weprin, Media Daily News

Apple the next Nokia?